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Humala Keiko brings you 6 points to a new nationwide survey

A comment my text yesterday informing me of a new survey of the Peruvian presidential election in which it took advantage of Keiko Fujimori Ollanta Humala. I was searching on the subject and I found that quite true :

presidential candidate wins Peru, Ollanta Humala Tasso, is maintained primarily on electoral voting intentions with 42%, reveals a recent survey at rural urban national Ipsos Apoyo. As the leader of Force 2011, Keiko Fujimori, gets 36%, indicating the first survey conducted after the elections on 10 April.

Why the difference so marked between the two surveys, no more and no less than 18 points (the first winner to give Keiko for 12 and last Humala by 6? Everything indicates that the field is in that have been made. The first took place only in the capital, Lima, where Keiko Fujimori has enough supporters, while the second is nationwide, including the poorest citizens living in rural areas, including Humala has more predicament than his opponent.

So, I have to admit that this survey seems more credible than the previous. Although six percentage points in the absence of one and a half is no big thing (the elections are on June 5, and the survey took place between 16 and 21 April). Recall that in the first round Alejandro Toledo leading in the polls less than a month after the date of the election, and eventually failed and finished second, staying out of the second round.

My personal analysis is that it seems that the shift toward the center of Ollanta Humala is giving results in the form of credibility in the electorate. Seems to have learned the lesson of the previous elections in 2006, when he also won the first round clearly with their extremist agenda, to lose the second round to Alan García. The problem is that for me Ollanta Humala is unreliable, and there is a clear contradiction between what he says and what he wants. The only positive thing is that Humala will not control the Congress of Peru, in which the sum of the seats Keiko party added to the three centrist parties are more than Humala's party. This implies that to reach the presidency can not do all the radical changes he wanted, it would have opposed the legislature.

In any case, nothing is decided yet about the final outcome between Keiko Fujimori or Hollanta Humala. Continue to monitor the polls and the final choice on 5 June.